Speculation of an oncoming war with Iran began circulating on January 3rd, following a drone strike ordered by the Trump administration, on Iranian General Qassem Soleimani as he arrived at the Baghdad International Airport to meet with Iraqi leaders. Since the assassination of Soleimani, military retaliation and civilian protests in Iran have left many concerned and uncertain of future relations with Iran and its allies. A particular cause for uncertainty is the ambiguity of what warranted an attack on such a high-ranking individual without congressional approval.
Tensions Leading Up to the Assassination
Tensions between the United States and Iran have increased steadily since the Trump administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, in 2018. This deal was meant to curb Iranian nuclear development, partially in exchange for the U.S. lifting its sanctions on Iran (BBC, 2019). Since the JCPOA was first agreed upon in 2015, Iran had complied with the terms. Trump felt that it gave Iran too much freedom however, and on May 8th, 2018, he withdrew from the agreement (New York Times, 2018).
In hopes of regaining the leverage held by the U.S. leading up to the negotiations of JCPOA, Trump reinstated sanctions on Iran, once again crippling its economy (BBC, 2019). The deal was not renegotiated, and Iran often threatened that it would cease their compliance with the restrictions outlined in the agreement, as the remaining parties could not meet the agreements without the U.S. (Gladstone, 2019). In July of 2019, Iran announced that they have officially exceeded the agreed-upon limit on stockpiled enriched uranium (Turak, 2019).
In June of 2019, tensions reached the brink when Iran shot down an unmanned U.S. drone, claiming it was in Iranian airspace. The U.S. however, claimed it was outside Iran’s boundaries and threatened retaliation (Shear, 2019). President Trump went as far as approving missile strikes against Iran but pulled back at the last-minute stating that a missile strike is “not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone” (Seligman, 2019).
Just days before the drone strike on General Soleimani, the U.S. retaliated with military strikes against an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia that’s believed to be responsible for the death of an American contractor in a rocket attack December 27th, 2019 (Politico, 2019). The accused militia group, Kataib Hezbollah, denied having a role in the attack, and on December 31st, 2019 protestors stormed the U.S. embassy in Baghdad in support of the militia (Moore, 2020).
Imminent Threat?
According to Article I, Section 10, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution, the president is prohibited from "engag[ing] in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent danger as will not admit of delay” without “Consent of Congress.” The Trump administration has justified the decision to assassinate General Soleimani by claiming it was in response to an “imminent threat” that Trump himself told Fox News he believes to have been plans of attack on four U.S. embassies, including the one in Baghdad (Pappas, 2020). This continues to be questioned however, as State Department officials told CNN that they were not warned of any particular threat (Atwood, 2020).
Furthermore, many politicians have criticized the strike to be reckless and have expressed concern as to whether the Trump administration will seek congressional approval for future military actions. The most notable of these critics was by Republican Senator Mike Lee. Senator Lee described a briefing on the strike as “deeply distressing,” telling NPR that the Trump administration refused to acknowledge a hypothetical scenario in which they would go to Congress before acting against Iran (NPR, 2020). Senator Lee continued on to state that once amended, he would support—even cosponsor—a measure to enforce the War Powers Resolution of 1983, that’s already been passed in the House of Representatives (Segers, 2020). This measure "directs the President to terminate the use of United States Armed Forces to engage in hostilities in or against Iran or any part of its government or military," reiterating that unless there is a valid imminent threat, the president does not have the authority to order an act of war without congressional approval (Segers, 2020).
Repercussions
On January 5th, the Iraqi parliament voted to approve a nonbinding resolution to expel U.S. troops from the country (Abdul-Zahra, 2020). U.S. State Department officials, however, have stated that they don’t plan on complying with this request and intend to continue their mission to assist the region in their fight against ISIS (Hansler, 2020).
On January 8th, Iran retaliated against the drone strike on General Soleimani with a missile strike on two Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops. There were no lethal casualties, however eleven military personnel were injured in the attack (Loveluck, 2020). Just hours after this strike, a Ukrainian passenger plane was accidentally shot down in Iranian capital, Tehran, by the Iranian military (Beaumont, 2020). No warning was issued by the United Nation’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) beforehand, and 176 lives were lost (Rivers, 2020).
Throughout the week, Iran was ablaze with protests, initially fueled by mourning and anti-American sentiment in response to the death of General Soleimani, then by outrage at their own country’s regime following the shooting down of the passenger plane (Kirby, 2020).
Who was Qassem Soleimani?
To those outside Iran, it seems strange to hear how deeply the country mourned the loss of a general. In the U.S., military personnel aren’t typically household names, but in Iran, Soleimani was known not only for his high-ranking role during Iran’s Islamic Revolution of 1979, but also for being essentially the face of Iranian government propaganda (Turak, 2020). At the time of his death, he was regarded as the “mastermind” behind numerous militia groups in the region (Fassihi, 2020).
The U.S. Treasury Department has long since recognized Soleimani as a terrorist for commanding a group—the Quds force—that aided terrorist organizations such as the Taliban, as well as the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate during the alleged killing of pro-democracy protesters in Syria (Kertscher, 2020). The U.S. has however, worked with Soleimani as recent as 2014 in our fight against ISIS, and in the aftermath of the 9/11 attack, Iran had at the time denounced the Taliban and aided the U.S invasion in Afghanistan (Kowalski, 2020).
Tensions with Iran and the surrounding region have been on the rise for years, and many expected the assassination of Soleimani to be the boiling point. The saving grace, however, seems to be that there were no U.S. casualties in Iran’s retaliation. Had this not been the case the U.S. would have likely enacted Trump’s promise of a “disproportionate” response against Iran’s retaliation (Klar, 2020). The future of our country’s relationships around the world, particularly in the middle east remains to be seen. We can only hope that future actions not be taken without careful consideration and diplomacy.
Works Cited
Atwood, Kylie. “State Department Security Officials Weren't Notified of 'Imminent' Threats to US Embassies.” CNN, Cable News Network, 14 Jan. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/01/13/politics/state-embassy-threat-iran-blindsideded/index.html.
BBC. “Iran Nuclear Deal: Key Details.” BBC News, BBC, 11 June 2019, www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33521655.
BBC. “Iran Nuclear Deal: Trump Pulls US out in Break with Europe Allies.” BBC News, BBC, 9 May 2018, www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44045957.
Fassihi, Farnaz, and Michael Barbaro. “Why Iran Is in Mourning.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 7 Jan. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/podcasts/the-daily/trump-iran-soleimani.html.
Gladstone, Rick. “Iran Will No Longer Honor Nuclear Deal's Limits on Research.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 6 Sept. 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/09/05/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal-sanctions.html.
Hansler, Jennifer, et al. “Pompeo Dismisses Iraqi Request to Work on Plan to Withdraw US Troops.” CNN, Cable News Network, 12 Jan. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/01/10/politics/iraq-pompeo-troop-withdrawal-mechanism/index.html.
Kertscher , Tom. “Obama Designated Soleimani a Terrorist, but Did Nothing?” Politifact, 16 Jan. 2020, www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2020/jan/16/donald-trump/fact-checking-trumps-claim-obama-designated-irans-/.
Kirby, Jen. “How Thousands of Iranians Went from Mourning a General to Protesting the Regime, in a Week.” Vox, Vox, 16 Jan. 2020, www.vox.com/2020/1/16/21065638/iran-protests-soleimani-trump-jcpoa.
Klar, Rebecca. “Trump Warns of 'Disproportionate' Response If Iran Strikes US Targets.” TheHill, The Hill, 5 Jan. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/administration/476854-trump-warns-of-disproportionate-response-if-iran-strikes-us-targets.
Kowalski, Philip. “Soleimani and the United States Worked Together to Beat ISIS.” OZY, 8 Jan. 2020, www.ozy.com/true-and-stories/not-so-long-ago-soleimani-and-the-u-s-worked-together-to-beat-isis/262477/.
Loveluck, Louisa, and Dan Lamothe. “11 U.S. Troops Needed Treatment after Iranian Missile Attack, Pentagon Says.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 18 Jan. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/01/17/americans-injured-iran-missile-attack/.
Moore, Elena, and Roberta Rampton. “Timeline: How The U.S. Came To Strike And Kill A Top Iranian General.” NPR, NPR, 4 Jan. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/01/04/793364307/timeline-how-the-u-s-came-to-strike-and-kill-a-top-iranian-general.
The New York Times. “Read the Full Transcript of Trump's Speech on the Iran Nuclear Deal.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 8 May 2018, www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/us/politics/trump-speech-iran-deal.html.
NPR. “Sen. Lee And Other Lawmakers Criticize White House Briefing On Iran.” NPR, NPR, 9 Jan. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/01/09/794834920/sen-lee-and-other-lawmakers-criticize-white-house-briefing-on-iran.
Pappas, Alex. “Trump Tells Fox News' Laura Ingraham 'Four Embassies' Were Targeted in Imminent Threat from Iran.” Fox News, FOX News Network, 10 Jan. 2020, www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-tells-laura-ingraham-four-embassies-were-targeted-in-imminent-threat-from-iran.
Politico. “U.S. Hits Iraq Militia Blamed in Defense Contractor's Death.” POLITICO, 29 Dec. 2019, www.politico.com/news/2019/12/29/strike-iraq-death-militia-090555.
Rivers, Martin. “The Downing of Flight 752 in Iran Is a Tragedy of Complacency | Martin Rivers.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 13 Jan. 2020, www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/13/downing-flight-752-tragedy-complacency-airlines.
Segers, Grace. “House Approves War Powers Resolution to Restrict Trump on Iran.” CBS News, CBS Interactive, 10 Jan. 2020, www.cbsnews.com/news/war-powers-resolution-house-votes-to-limit-trumps-ability-act-against-iran/.
Seligman, Lara, and Robbie Gramer. “Why Trump Decided Not to Attack Iran.” Foreign Policy, 21 June 2019, foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/21/trump-fearing-casualties-aborts-iran-strike-at-last-minute/.
Shear, Michael D. “Strikes on Iran Approved by Trump, Then Abruptly Pulled Back.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 20 June 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/world/middleeast/iran-us-drone.html.
Turak, Natasha. “'The Puppet Master Is Dead': Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani's Power, and Why His Death Is Such a Big Deal.” CNBC, CNBC, 7 Jan. 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/01/03/who-was-iranian-general-qasem-soleimani-and-why-his-killing-matters.html.
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